The round table discusses "the future development of the automotive industry and the future development of new energy vehicles in the new situation"

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  1. HICOOL 2020 ENVISION Your Future
    , September 12, 2020, Mr. Shen Yanan, co -founder and president of the ideal car, Mr. Yu Chen, general manager of the marketing center of the ARCFOX business department, and 36 氪 CEO Feng Dagang at the Hicool Global Entrepreneur Summit and More than 2,000 overseas entrepreneurs from more than 80 countries around the world and on -site guests shared a round table discussion on "the development of the automotive industry and the future development of new energy vehicles in the new situation".
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    The challenge and opportunity of the development of new energy vehicles in the future
    Feng Dagang: Thank you all for visiting the HICOOL Global Entrepreneur Summit, I am the host 36 氪CEO Feng Dagang, Mr. Shen Yanan, co -founder and president of the ideal car. This is Yu Chen, general manager of the marketing center of the ARCFOX business department, welcome two.
    The theme today is: under the new situation, the trend of the automotive industry and the future development of new energy vehicles. In August this year, new energy passenger cars ushered in the best market growth since May 2018. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of new energy for passenger cars exceeded 100,000 units, which was more than 43.7%year -on -year, which means that it means The entire market and users' confidence in new energy vehicles are constantly increasing.
    we should see that new energy vehicles are still new things after all. Today there are two data. One data is that in the entire Chinese car ownership today, the new energy sources do not exceed 1.5%. It is said that if you look at the increase, 95%are still fuel cars, which means that we are still in a relatively primary stage.
    What do we transform to the new industry? How does this direct new energy vehicle industry make the market bigger? First of all, if you want to build a new energy vehicle for the future, what is the most important point now? Such as power mode? Or autonomous driving? Or smart service? Or something else, what else is what we want to solve very quickly? Ask President Shen first.
    What is the most important point of new energy vehicles in the future?
    Shen Yanan: This problem is relatively large. The competition of cars is a comprehensive competition, and it is difficult to win at a certain point of breakthroughs. So in our opinion, the ideal car insists on considering this in three aspects.
    The first is the new electric driver, the second is the new intelligence, and the last new business model, which represents three directions.
    The first direction, how to solve the problem of driving from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. There are many solutions today, pure electric, like ARCFOX is a good pure tram, and BYD has always made a lot of dual -mode investment. In the ideal car, we are a model of adhering to the increase.
    The discussion in the industry. Some people say that this is good. That is good. In fact, for us, the direction of the entire industry is to make more traditional fuel vehicles turn to new energy vehicles. As for new energy vehicles, it is said that in new energy vehicles The distinction between various technical routes is actually a hundred schools of contention. Each solution has the advantages of user groups and technology. There is no technical solution in the world that is a trick to control the enemy. It may not be realistic if you want to control the enemy. This is a driver.
    Secondly, we see more and more customers who are more willing to accept smart new energy vehicles. Not only new energy vehicles, but everyone wants to be a smart car. What is the logo of a smart car? In the simple point of view, the owner no longer uses the mobile phone, and deeper is a car with vitality. Continuously upgraded through OTA, just like a mobile phone, each upgrade has new functions, new user experience, and even upgrading through the OTA can change the performance of the car, including the performance of the brake, the accelerated performance improvement, the fuel consumption of fuel consumption reduce. This intelligence is an increasingly important consideration point when customers choose a new car, which is as important as the driver.
    Third, the ideal car has been doing, new business model, new customer relationship. The traditional car in the past was to meet customers through the form of wholesale, and then directly satisfied the customers. After the sales of 4S shops, this time, the direct customer relationship is the most important asset for us. The method of direct -operated is to serve customers, including selling cars, including services, including after -sales maintenance. In this way, you can accumulate your customer resources and accumulate this customer relationship. We believe that this force must not be discarded, all three aspects need.
    Feng Dagang: I hope to find a breakthrough. If you want to solve the user's experience systematically, it is impossible to be a point, which should be comprehensive. President Yu of BAIC, do you agree with what Mr. Shen just said?
    Yu Chen: Thank you host, thank you President Shen. Our views are also very similar to Mr. Shen. At present, we mainly focus on two aspects of new energy. One is technology, that is, productivity; the second is in model. If there is a product and no model, there is no way to improve this product or technology power. Only the model. If there is no product, this model will not last long.
    Therefore, we are mainly in terms of products. We are also doing a forward research. We now build the 1873 Avis Lab with Huawei. On the one hand, basic science research, on the one hand, application technology. In fact, as an enterprise, we will apply more in terms of application technology. Our cooperation with Huawei is more in terms of specific product applications, such as some transmission Feelings, laser radar, may have more information, and there are many cooperation.
    . On the other hand, in terms of model, the pattern has a lot to do with its own DNA, because our current state, the nature of state -owned enterprises, the current model, the direct business One of the excessive stages, whether it is directly operated or the traditional model, there is a development. The direction we are going now is a composite strategy. We focus on the direct -operated model, and we have such resources. At the same time, a relatively traditional model will be adopted in a wide range of markets, but there will be some changes in the form. It is also separated from sales and sales. It is also the same model. Learn an excellent experience in the ideal of ideals. We feel that the same goes are the same, and in the end, we must serve customers and understand the needs of customers to meet users.
    On new energy industry how to create the most competitive products?
    36 氪 CEO Feng Dagang
    Feng Dagang: I thought I would have different ideas, but as a service consumers, it was consistent. The next question, I would like to ask President Yu, ARCFOX's αT is about to be listed, and the pre -selling price should be 280,000. It may be consistent with the pricing of the first paragraph of many new cars today and the price of high -end cars in the market. In fierce competition, how should a new energy vehicle company start and make differentiated and competitive products?
    Is Yu Chen: Sometimes we are discussing internally, how is differentiated? We feel that differentiation should be found from our own DNA, the mechanism is good, the source of capital itself, and the things on the DNA determine the trend of future development.
    Cfox in many products or models is also learning to learn from the ideal enterprises and move closer. We are state -owned enterprises. One of the great advantages of state -owned enterprises is the use of resources. Today, we have a relatively large booth at the venue, and also thanks to government leaders for their support. Some of our resources have contributed to our development in this direction. For example, in terms of products, products are a very important advantage of our traditional enterprises. We can cooperate with companies such as Magna. We jointly jointly produce and manufacture the products of ARCFOX.
    McGona has a history of more than 100 years. BMW's 5 Series is also produced by their foundry. They have a relatively long inheritance in manufacturing. We also have excellent supplier resources in China, such as Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, have the advantages of procurement. Our ARCFOX can form a small advantage in the supply chain in procurement. In the advantages of two traditional enterprises in manufacturing and supply chain, we will magnify it. In this way, our competitive advantage will also be initially established. At the same time, it is outside. Innovation, the combination of internal and external points builds our differentiated competitiveness.
    Feng Dagang: Although the pricing looks the same, there are still many things behind it. Whether it is resources, partners, supply chains, manufacturing, many things are differentiated. President Shen, including the industry some time ago, knows that the ideal is an extended technical route. There are indeed some controversy. It may think that pure electric is the future. What do you think of this problem, the ideal car has always adhered to the extended road, or will it become an electric style at a certain point point?
    The Shen Yanan: Everyone discusses this problem. First of all, the industry is more tangled. Instead, we are not so tangled, and our customers are not so tangled. Because we make the starting point of the use of processing technology, mainly considering from the perspective of customers.
    It from the perspective of customers, customers are very simple when choosing a new energy vehicle, with only three needs.
    The first one is whether it is easy to drive, because the electric driver's car is naturally better than the fuel vehicle, because the acceleration is more smooth, quieter, and linear. This is the first one.
    The second one is inconvenient to care about. We are still very convenient to cheer today. You can add oil everywhere, but once you arrive at a pure tram or an electric car, everyone will think about whether the home can charging a pile. There will be a problem of convenience and inconvenience.
    The third, consumers are very simple, just consider not cost -effective, how is the price?
    We we choose to do the extended process, the most important thing is to look at these three needs of customers.
    The first, because the extended process, the foundation is still a pure tram, but only added a set of process increase systems, so it is the same as pure tram in terms of good driving. It is more advantageous than PHEV. When it comes to power, it is still the experience of fuel vehicle.
    The second is convenient. Today, the charging facilities of our country are gradually improving, but in fact, this speed is still unsatisfactory. From a convenient perspective, we are thinking about whether we can let customers have charging conditions whether there is a charging condition. , Or if there is no charging conditions, we can easily use our electric driver's car, and we choose to increase the process. It can be charged slowly, it can be charged quickly, and we can refuel. We have continued to monitor a lot of data. So far, the ideal has more than 15,000 vehicles in the market. Nearly 60%of the mileage is pure electric form. It is when everyone runs long distances or goes away, they will make up by refueling, so it is very convenient.
    third, it is not cheap, unsuitable. The structure of our increase will be greatly reduced. From the overall cost, compared with the fuel vehicle of the same performance, because the so -called industry experts, sometimes we compare us with a car. Of course, it is not a one. thing. Our cost is only slightly higher than that of fuel vehicles, but for consumers, buying our extended car does not need to pay the purchase tax, so the comprehensive purchase cost is even lower than that of fuel vehicles. With these three aspects, it is very in line with customer requirements. This is our point of view.
    It, in the industry, for the contribution of society, whether it is a pure tram or an increase car, it actually contributes to the energy conservation and emission reduction of the entire country. As long as a fuel vehicle can be replaced, whether it is a pure electric replacement or an increase of process replacement, the emissions will decrease a lot.
    The second, from the perspective of national industrial policy. Why do you do pure electricity, why do you do extension and do our new technology, we still hope that in our automotive industry, we can play the advantages of Chinese industries. In the past, the disadvantages of the engine and gearboxes, whether it was pure electric or extended process, we all realized the so -called curve overtaking, and we were no longer subject to the backwardness of the gearbox and engine technology.
    What is the advantage of Tesla?
    The ideal car co -founder and president Shen Yanan
    Feng Dagang: Thank you President Shen, just now we are discussing why the ideal choice of the extension, not to say the ideal choice, but consumers chose. I asked when it would change, and the answer was obvious, which was determined by consumers.
    The next question starts from President Shen, and please ask President Yu for a while. Recently, there is a saying that many companies have not figured out where Tesla wins. This question can be opened and asked. We ask whether it is, and then say why. Has Tesla won? If you win, where is the best? Both can answer.
    Sunanan: Tesla's momentum is very fierce. Since Model 3 domestic production, the sales volume is far ahead in the main limit cities. The reason why many people do not understand why Tesla win is because we are also discussing how to compete with Tesla every day. What is our opinion, why can Tesla win? The main win is to solve the charging. It uses its solution to help users solve the problem of charging. Because if you really try to open a Model 3, from the size, configuration, and manufacturing quality, in the perspective, it is not a very good car.
    Feng Dagang: It is not the advantage of the terminal, it is the advantage of the network.
    In Shen Yanan: Yes, Tesla will lay 4,000 super charging piles in China this year. Only 2000 have been laid in the past 6 years. Once you solve the problem of this charging, let your customers have charging whether there is a charging charging. Conditions, there are still no charging conditions, you will feel relieved to a certain extent. There are three Tesla charging piles in our 600 meters, and the customer's psychology will change a lot.
    Is we will win on the energy network when we talk about Tesla. This energy network is also limited, because super charging piles are not getting better and better, but more and more difficult to shop, because limited urban resources If a single brand cannot be occupied by other cars, it is actually not much good for the development of new energy vehicles. Our ideal car settled the charging pile directly on your car. You give a replenishment device, which is more convenient.
    Feng Dagang: What do you think of this question, is there any place to learn from them?
    Yu Chen: Tesla has many places worth learning. Our BAIC New Energy Building is Nokia's building. In Yizhuang, after Nokia left, we bought this building and put it on the long timeline axis. Only a certain moment is winning, but what is it like in the end? I don't know now.
    We we have so many excellent companies in our country, some put it in our eyes, and some may not be in their eyes. The winning or losing is not yet determined. I want to have ideal cars, Xiaopeng, Wei There are so many excellent companies, including Arcfox, including our BAIC.
    Tesla's success is actually a bit related to the initial timing. They came to China in 2014. At that time, the country was starting to start electric vehicles, but many companies have not been fully prepared. Tesla The emergence conforms to this opportunity and the trend, and at the same time created many forms of product standards, such as large screens, such as OTA, such as various electrical drives, including some standards for battery safety. These things are all these things. Creative.
    So consumers or in the industry, they do not consciously compare it as a pioneer and benchmark. In contrast, this potential energy goes up. After investing, after entering the market, the emergence of Model 3 also pulled the price down, and also entered sufficient market competition, and began to enter complete competition. In the past 20 years and more than 30 years, the competition history with joint venture brands and foreign brands may still have a strong contest, especially OTA, car ecology, etc., all have strong opportunities for competition.
    How to improve the market share of new energy vehicles?
    It Yu Chen, general manager of the marketing center of ARCFOX Division
    Feng Dagang: What kind of way can we defeat it? The narrow sense is to say that defeating Tesla, in a broad sense, new energy vehicles only account for 5%of the market. How can I win the market?
    Yu Chen: We are relatively traditional. The first is from a historical perspective. From the market competition and fully compete, there are some improvements in our own products. Essence The second is the experience and grasp of the user, whether the ideal, Weilai, is the grasp of user thinking. The biggest shortage of traditional enterprises is here. We are the thinking of Party A and do not fully understand the user. In deeper development, at the same time, combined with the advantages of products and manufacturing, and the advantages of understanding the Chinese market, I believe that we can compete with Tesla in the market or more extensive competition with oil vehicles.
    In Shen Yanan: Competition with Tesla, in the long run, we are still very confident. Tesla wins on an independent charging network, but there is one inch in one inch. In the next step, the development of the next step will be limited to the speed of your own charging network, which will form a bottleneck for yourself. Because there is no such problem in the United States, 95%of Tesla users in the United States have household charging piles and will be limited by charging network bottlenecks in China. And taking a separate technical route, from the perspective of the entire social solution to the charging infrastructure, they have taken one another, which is the first problem.
    The second question, we are more confident to defeat it in terms of intelligence, because today, if from the perspective of smart cockpits, the ideal car must be better than Tesla, Taobao sold special specials in selling specials for selling on Taobao. What is the best spare parts of Sla? Still a mobile phone rack. Most Tesla users still need to use mobile phones in the car, because it feels that its navigation is not easy to use. Its music is implemented with H5 and can only make 128K music.
    Americans still have gaps with our Chinese in this regard, so they can win it in terms of intelligence. In terms of autonomous driving, Tesla is indeed ahead, but through our data accumulation, in the future, we have the opportunity to surpass it in terms of artificial intelligence and data computing power. The only one as a pioneer does have a relatively certain leading advantage in the brand. Through our continuous accumulation, whether it is a new car or an ARCFOX hatched by BAIC, there is still a chance to compete with it.
    The competition pattern and market scale of new energy vehicles
    Feng Dagang: The last question is still discussing the competition pattern of new energy vehicles in the future. I want to know how the two are the same as before?
    The people say that new energy vehicles look more like smartphones. Is it like the pattern of fuel vehicles or a smartphone pattern in the future? The competition of smartphones is very fast. For example, 10 years, traditional cars may only kill a pattern in a hundred years. In this mobile phone, we are all -round competition. It turned out to be a line of competition. Now it is a network competition. These things are different, including the cooperation pattern. In the past, everyone developed themselves. Today is a lot of things. What do you think of the future competition? What is the market space of new energy?
    In Shen Yanan: From the end of the perspective, we think that the wave of smart grid cars is very similar to smartphones from the results:
    There are not as many brands in China abroad. We think that in the end, we are similar to smartphones. Smart mobile phones are now Apple, foreign brands, and then China is Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, which is basically such a pattern. There are also companies that are transformed from non -smart phones to smartphones. Samsung is basically such a pattern.
    Is the remaining brands of smartphones may be slightly slightly slightly more slightly as much as these brands. It should not be as high as apples. China will definitely rise, Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi will definitely. Traditional car manufacturers must have successfully transformed like Samsung, and they survived, so integrating, and then new entryrs, this is the result we think. But in terms of time cycle, it will definitely be slower than smartphones, which is also a lot of our recent thinking.
    I used to make mobile phones before. I have experienced this round of changes. The reason why smartphones are transformed so fast because on the one hand, from non -smart phones to smartphones, In addition, from the perspective of supply, because the supply chain is a smartphone or a non -smart phone, the supplier system is similar. Yesterday, the mobile phone of Nokia may be able to switch to Xiaomi mobile phones after a month. The supply also follows quickly.
    The car will have a difference. The first customer will be slightly slower, but it will be fast. There will be an inflection point in the next step. More and more customers will want to buy smart electric vehicles. Because we currently see it As long as you are a user who has tested the ideal ONE, or the user who is watching the ideal ONE now, it is difficult to go back to drive the traditional car, so there will be such an inflection point. From the perspective of the supply chain, the degree of development is much higher than that of mobile phones. Traditional car dealers can take a long time to serve new energy vehicles.
    Feng Dagang: The update of mobile phone users may be one to two years, but the car will not, maybe it takes five to ten years. What kind of dimension will this replacement be completed?
    In Shen Yanan: We still have 25 million vehicles every year. What we see is not necessarily the amount of preservation. The annual conversion rate is estimated. By 2025, the overall plan of the national new energy will have the opportunity to realize it. Conservative 500 Thousands of vehicles each year, a little radical is 7.5 million, which is very chance to do in 2025. Among them, pure electricity may occupy a part, and the process and plug -in.
    Feng Dagang: Mr. Shen is a bit conservative. President Yu, just mentioned this metaphor, is more like a smartphone, or more like a traditional fuel vehicle. What do you think of this problem?
    Yu Chen: President Shen has already said very complete and very comprehensive. For the judgment of the pattern, from the perspective of sales, from the perspective of the market, consumption is upgrading, in the range of 200,000-400,000 range. Car, Weilai and Xiaopeng are in this range. In this range, there are fewer competitive products. It is also a range of traditional fuel vehicles. It is also an upgrade of consumption in the next generation. The original demand for cars below 200,000. The most important competition in the future is that in this price range, the competition in the product will become increasingly intensified. Others will be very comprehensive, and I will not add it anymore.
    Feng Dagang: There is another question that there is no question. How big will the market size of new energy vehicles be?
    Yu Chen: We are also looking forward to a range of 500-800 in 2025. Our BAIC Group has been looking forward to achieving a comprehensive transformation of the group in 2025. At the same time The first car will be launched, and new cars will be launched every year. Each new car will bring new surprises to consumers.
    Feng Dagang: Thanks to the wonderful sharing of the two guests, thank you!
    * This article was shared by Mr. Shen Yanan, co -founder and president of the ideal car, Mr. Yu Chen, general manager of the marketing center of the ARCFOX business department, and Mr. Feng Dagang, a 36 氪 CEO, from the HICOOL Global Entrepreneur Summit. Do not forward.
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